tv The Daily Rundown MSNBC November 5, 2012 9:00am-10:00am EST
>> tweet me @morningmika for the line we hear that we should do a shot for. i like too close to call. we'll see how that goes. and, also, it -- >> be hammered by 8:30. >> pensacola is hosting the marathon. >> this weekend. >> those who couldn't run in new york city, go to pensacola. >> we'll be using some of the money for charity here. also a shot line that always works. >> what's that? >> when i was in congress -- >> no, i'd be laid out drunk on the floor. forget it. all right. bye. >> by the way, we'll see you at the 92 street "y" tomorrow morning. >> up next "the daily rundown" with chuck ed todd. >> chuck? cue remote. we have a new national poll plus brand-new numbers from battleground virginia. who is telling us they'll turn
out on tuesday and which candidate will like the sound of that more? this morning top advocates from both sides,enator kelly ayotte. and there's senator dick durbin, the president's home state confident and one of the first people who pushed him to run for president. plus, if you were gambling on the gridiron predicting tuesday's winner, you may have to think again just like the country. alabama and lsu and the redskins gave us a 50/50 split. good morning from democracy plaza it in new york city. one day left, folks. one day morning. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. to my first reads of the morning. 33 hours until the first polls close. the last 24 hours, though, the two campaigns held 14 events in eight states, six in hiohio alo. it's a race against the clock. >> welcome. >> back in 2008 i spent a lot of time here in new hampshire. >> the great state of ohio,
thank you so much. >> florida, we know what changes. >> your help, pennsylvania -- >> i need you, ohio. >> virginia is the best. >> turn out for me, colorado. we will win this state. >> as the candidates barnstorm the battleground states, new polls show the president may have caught an 11th hour break with voters in this deadlocked race may be moving ever so slightly in his direction. our new nbc news/"the wall street journal" poll the president does lead 48% to 47% among likely voters. a look at other national polls confirm it's razor tight, maybe even a mirror image of the 2004 showdown between president bush and senator john kerry. we see some movement towards the president. obama leads by seven points, almost four in ten. and he leads by four points in the battleground states, again, though, within the margin of error. the president is holding on to an eight-point advantage among women and that's slightly higher
than romney's edge among men. the president's job rating sits at 49%. take a look at these numbers. 67% of likely voters approve of his handling of hurricane sandy. haven't seen numbers like that for this president on a single event, of course, going back to bin laden. and we may be seeing a sandy effect in other numbers. when voters are asked which candidate has better leadership qualities, the president -- more now pick the president. two weeks ago mitt romney led in that question, 44% to 40%. this doesn't mean romney doesn't have some things going for him. he's winning independents, the group the president won in 2008. romney leads them now by seven points. and romney leads by five points when voters are asked which candidate is better prepped to create jobs and improve the economy. still, the president continues to have a double digit lead on which candidate will do better at looking 0 out for the middle class. obama leads by 11 points on that economic values question, if you will. so where does this race stand? the best gauge may be the
candidate's schedules. the president spends his final day defending that midwestern firewall. he'll be in madison, wisconsin, this morning. columbus, ohio, this afternoon. he ends his campaign in des moines, iowa, tonight where he gets joined by the first lady. mitt romney's final day also is about the narrow path he's trying to get to 270. it's florida, then virginia and new hampshire, states he needs along with either ohio and pennsylvania to get to that magic number of 270. the two campaigns both believe the fundamentals are in place for victory. >> for governor romney to win states like ohio, iowa, north carolina, he's going to have to carry election day by a huge mar margin. >> there's an intensity factor on the side of the republicans. there's a significant gap. we see it on the ground. we see it when people are knocking on the doors. >> both men are laying out their closing arguments. the final rallies in 2008 drew crowds of 60,000 and 80,000. last night in aurora, colorado, it was 20,000 supporters who heard the president argue this
election is ultimately about character. >> part of a presidential race is about policy. but part of it's about trust. you may be frustrated sometimes by the pace of change. guess what? so am i. but you know what i believe. you know where i stand. you know i tell the truth. >> the obama campaign is counting on victory by piecing together a demographic puzzle. and in his final appeal the president carefully targets each of those groups he needs to do it. >> the autoworker who thought he'd never be back on that assembly line. the young immigrant brought here when they were a child, saying pledge of allegiance to our flag. we don't think politicians should be controlling health care choices women are perfectly capable of making themselves? >> will they turn out?
the campaign is now effectively over. >> we looked at each other and said, you know what, we're no longer relevant now. we're props. because what's happened is now the campaign falls on these 25 year year kids. >> governor romney also knows that his five-year effort to win the presidency may end tomorrow night at the boston convention center. you can see some of the exhaustion show. romney's demeanor hinting at anything? that he somehow thinks he might not get there? >> you're tired of being tired. not just tonight but all the time. >> people overreading body language a little bit. after reports ann romney appeared exhausted at a series. one of mrs. romney's aides wanted to assure nbc news it's about being tired, nothing about her ms acting up. on the trail this in virginia, mitt romney argued that he is the changed candidate this year.
>> instead of bridging the divide, he's made it wider. >> if the president were to be re-elected, he would -- it's possible but not likely. if he were to be re-elected, he would be able to work with president in congress. >> the bitterness between the two campaigns is palpable. there are signs that governing will be a huge challenge for the winner. protesters interrupted the president's rally in ohio and at every stop romney seized on this recent comment from the president. >> don't boo, vote. vote. voting's the best revenge. >> president obama asked his supporters to vote for revenge. for revenge? i ask people to vote instead for
love of country. >> and republican slammed former president bill clinton for these comments on the military. >> look at how much stronger the american military is because it is less racist, less sexist, less homophobic and we just look at who is doing the job. >> mitt romney argues he can bridge the divide by working with good democrats. the great challenge will be governing in this polarized climate we will wake up to on wednesday morning or maybe thursday morning or maybe it's friday morning. as we said all along, keep an eye on the big three. president obama and governor romney will hold five events there in the next 24 hours, florida, ohio, and havevirginia. we've nicknamed them flova. in new jersey officials are still scrambling to ensure people hit by sandy can even cast ballots. let me start with our quick
whiparound, we begin farthest south along florida's i-4 corridor. romney will be in sanford and the first lady in orlando. two sides trying to seal the deal. mark potter is in tampa. he joins me now. mark, i keep hearing it's about hillsborough county and orange county. one is about turnout among port recons puerto ricans and the other is it's a swing county. >> the bell bewether of bellwethers. they are rarely wrong about that. >> reporter: it's why both campaigns have their state headquarters here. florida in general is a huge prize. it's a richly diverse state. 29 electoral votes and the cann candidates are working hard now to get out the vote. president obama was in hollywood, florida. governor romney in sanford, florida, today trying to energize their base and engage
the independents here for which florida is famous particularly in this area in central florida along the i-4 corridor connecting tampa to orlando, which you mentioned, and over to daytona beach. so far more than 4.5 million flo floridians have already voted. the democrats lead in the voting at the polls. the republicans in the absentees but the gap between them is dwarfed by those independents. that's where the focus is. they determine the outcome of an election here. >> that's right, mark potter. mark potter in hillsborough in tampa. now let's turn to the buckeye state, part of the midwestern firewall. both candidates will be in columbus, ohio. kelly o'donnell is live for us in cleveland. when it comes to cleveland, your home area there, kelly, i know it's all about margins if it is for the president and mitt romney. >> reporter: exactly, chuck. cuyahoga county will go for the president. the question is by how much. the obama team feels very good
about northeast ohio and republicans will be expected to make gains so that margin is critical. they are confident about student voters telling me they don't need the kids to jump up and down with the enthusiasm of '04 so long as they vote and there are certainly college campuses around the state where they have tried to target that. on the romney side they believe their voter contacts have made a real difference this time around. in the last two weeks reaching 3 million ohio voters, rping that up over recent days. that's knocking on doors, calling them, and then tracking have any of them gone to the polls? republicans believe they will win tomorrow on the vote in person. democrats feel very strongly about their early vote. both campaigns say they know how to win ohio and it's crucial for both. chuck? >> kelly o'donnell in cleveland. kelly, thanks. the president scored a big trick try in 2008. it was the first time a democrat won that state in 44 years. romney is making a big push to flip it back. tom costello is in richmond. he joins mae now.
there is no path to 270 that doesn't include the state of virgin virginia. >> reporter: 13 electoral votes are at stake here and what matters for the president to hold 0 virginia is the northern virginia suburbs right outside of washington, d.c., so we'll be watching loudoun county and prince william county. this is some of the most heavily followed piece of real estate in the country. 90 visits by the candidates and their spouses since june and they're here again today. vice president biden and governor romney in an 11th hour visit all the way up until tonight. it's no mistake, no coincidence paul ryan was unveiled here in norfolk, virginia. we have a very tight senate race that we'll be watching very closely. tim kaine and george allen. kaine is up by a point or two and obama is up by a point or two. we'll see how this comes back to the wire. >> they can tip the presidency
and control of the senate. new jersey took the brunt of hurricane sandy. voting probably doesn't top many people's priority list. officials are trying to give residents the opportunity to vote. ron allen is live for us. ron, there is confusion over what did governor christie say people could do about voting? could they really vote online, by e-mail, by fax and, frankly, i noticed there was a lot of confusion about what the governor ordered and how this is all going to work. can you sort it out? >> reporter: thanks, chuck. there's a lot of confusion, and it's a very evolving situation because of all the chaos associated with the storm. today is the first day people are trying to get back to work, there are commuter nightmares, long gas lines, and there's voting. yes, the governor said you can e-mail a request or fax a request for a ballot, get it back, fill it out, scan it, e-mail it back or fax it back to the county elections board. here at hudson county they are expecting long lines.
there have been lines for people to come in and vote, again, by paper ballot or by electronic ballot. they are talking about trying to consolidate polling places and parking lots outside of schools that have been damaged, setting up emergency generators, are bringing in military trucks to make it possible for people to vote. we'll see how it goes. >> we shall see. it will take a long time to count some of these ballots. ron allen monitoring the situation in jersey city, thank you. i want to take you to live pictures. this is mitt romney. it's his first event of the day. he's in sanford, florida. sanford is north of orlando. later today he's hitting have virginia, ohio and new hampshire. that path to 270 that he is trying to get. let's take a listen. >> the economy and the american job market will continue to be stagnant. but i won't waste any time complaining about my predecessor. and i won't spend my efforts trying to pass partisan
legislation unrelated to jobs and growth. from day one i'm going to go to work to help americans get back to work. and, you know, people all over the country are responding to paul ryan and my five-part plan to create more jobs and rising take-home pay. part one of that is taking full advantage of our energy resources, our oil, our coal, our gas, our nuclear renewable. on day one i'll act to increase the number of leases and permits to drill on federal lands. and i'll act to speed. approval of a keystone 0 pipeline from canada. number two, i will move to boost trade particularly with latin america. it's an enormous opportunity for us. we need to take advantage of it. and i will finally designate china as a currency manipulator. we all have to play by the same rules.
third, i'm going to send to congress a retraining reform act to make sure every worker can get the skills they need for a good job. number four, i'm going to tackle out of control spending. i will send the first of several fundamental reforms. the first will be called the down payment on fiscal sanity act. and it is going to do something that's been spoken of but never done. we're not just going to slow down the rate of federal spending, we're going to cut federal spending and get ourselves a balanced budget. >> all right. next, the candidates' confidants. kelly ayotte and dick durbin will join me. live from democracy plaza. can't have a better setting than this. we'll be right back. >> democracy mplaza is powered y
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and now back to virginia, the commonwealth's 13 electoral votes are totally up for grabs. president obama holds a narrow edge. the flip when we had romney up 48% to 47%. the director of the marist poll joins me. to mo it's no accident our final virginia and our final national marry each other, the state closest to the national number four years ago. when you look inside the numbers, what jumped out at you? >> well, lots of things. and it's just so close. we always thought this was going to be the bellwether and we knew how virginia was going to go and how the nation was going to go.
romney is ahead, face favorable/unfavorables parallels barack obama. virginia doesn't have the big early vote that some of the other states have had and it was, you know, a state that obama carried by seven last time. not as much as he carried some of his other bellwether states, these other battleground states. it could go it either way. >> the president's jobs rating. 48%/48%. we have who would better handle the economy here, mitt romney more narrowly. there really is, in that accepts, that may tell us about the northern virginia suburbs. >> absolutely and this is a state that will be watched obviously very closely because mitt romney doesn't get to 270 without it and right now you just can't tell from these
polls. >> and very quickly on the senate race, we have tim kaine a little bit further ahead than the president. he's overperforming by a point or two? >> yes, but still under 50%. a slight advantage for kaine but, again, get tired of saying it, perhaps, could go either way. they're all within the margin of error. >> lee miringoff, thanks. let's move to the two campaigns. after his event in florida mitt romney will buzz through two other battleground states before finishing his day just before midnight. what some are calling a victory rally in manchester, new hampshire, the same state where he launched his presidential campaign more than 17 months ago. joining me kelly ayotte. as i've been telling people mitmitt romney doesn't get to 270 without getting those four electoral votes from the state of new hampshire. senator, why is new hampshire a
dead heat? explain that. i know you think you're going to win it, but why is it so close? >> well, i think, chuck, we have a lot of independent voters in new hampshire, and they make up their minds at the last minute. but the fact that they haven't broken yet for the incumbent president bears well because people can't be happy with the status quo of anemic growth. the debt is an important issue in new hampshire and the president has not fulfilled his promises on cutting the deficit in half. so i feel really enthusiastic. i was out campaigning the last two days in new hampshire. there's a lot of energy out there for governor romney and, in fact, he will be in new hampshire tonight. we already have 17,000 rsvps for that event. >> and crowd size has been everything between the two campaigns the last couple of days. i want to read you something that senator lindsey graham said and i know you're one of the new three amigos with mccain, graham and you do a lot of releases togeth together. senator graham said this about the republicans. quote, if we lose this election,
there's only one explanation -- demographics. is he right? >> well, i think senator graham has a very important point. i think governor romney is running a really good campaign. there's tremendous hume. look at the record of this president. so certainly we're going to have to re-assess where the demographics are for the republican party. but i feel very confident about this election because we think about the economy, the did debt, who has the plan to turn this around and the enthusiasm is on the republican side right now, chuck. >> and when you look at the final move in new hampshire, tell me this, you are watching the state of new hampshire. what should we look for tuesday night that will tell you which way new hampshire is going to move? forget anything else, is it a specific town or county? what do you watch when you try to see if new hampshire will go blue or red? >> i think you're going to have to look very closely at hillsborough and rockingham counties. rockingham county should go for mitt romney, but what are the numbers in hillsborough county? those are the two largest counties in our state. but, also, when you combine the
other eight rural counties, so if one candidate takes those they can make up a loss in the other. i look closely at hillsborough, that includes nashua and manchester. >> and where we live in the winter during the primaries, if you will. senator kelly ayotte, stay safe on the campaign trail. we will talk to you soon. president obama starts his day in wisconsin, and he wraps it up 12 hours and 1,000 miles later in iowa. it's a stop that will bring him full circle in his own presidential campaign. nearly five years ago obama's victory in the iowa caucuses launched his eventual successful bid for the nomination and put him on to the road to the white house. joining me now on behalf of the obama campaign, illinois democratic senator dick durbin. senator durbin, if -- let me put it the other way, the question that i put to senator ayotte. if the president loses, what's your explanation? is it simply the economy was too much of a headwind? >> no, obviously, chuck --
>> i know you it don't believe it's going to happen. >> of course. i can tell you this. i believe that the democratic party and the president are really on the cusp of history, and i think lindsey graham put his finger on it. look at the democrats. how can you be a national party and have your candidate say i'll veto the dream act. 70% of voters across america support that. democrats, republicans and independents. how can you be a national party and have people like todd akin and murdoch in indiana saying these outrageous things about women? it is basically the kind of position that you took in the primary that really makes it difficult for republicans in the general election. we are focussing on the middle class in america. i think that's the key. >> one thing that seems to be on mitt romney's side that's not on your side, and i know you are discounting it now, but there is a difference in enthusiasm. we've seen it in our on polling and can argue is it ten points, five points, the difference in who is more fired up and i understand you believe you have the demographics, but four years
ago the obama campaign loved to point to crowd sizes. this time, oh, no, pay no attention to that. why shouldn't we pay attention to that? >> this is the difference. the leadup to it with hillary clinton and barack obama slugging it out in state after state, our base was involved and came together for a victory. the republicans went through 23 debates. how many primary contests and all the rest leading up to their nomination? naturally their base was more engaged. we had an incumbent president who was our nominee. take a look at what has happened in early voting state after state after state and you look at the key battleground states. we have fired up the people that we need to come out to vote. now we're going to close the deal in the final hours here. the telephone calls and the door knocks. >> what keeps you up? >> keeps me up. >> at night, yeah. what worries you the most about tomorrow night? >> i will tell you this, well, there is an uncertainty in the business for sure. i think we've done all our
homework. they've kind of given me the ohio, iowa, wisconsin part to work over and over again. i've been in those states. i've seen it on the ground. i believe we're going to close the deal in each of those states. we have a strong position. that's why romney is reaching out to brand-new states in the closing few days trying to find a path to victory. i think we're going to get this done. i guess the big concern is, our people have to close the deal, bring the voters to the polls. >> that's what we all wait and see. let the counting begin. dick durbin from illinois, thanks for coming on this morning. even wall street has its eyes on the election. the market rundown is next and we'll dig deeper into our final national poll. this is it, folks, the last one before the election. our pollsters will be here to explain what they learned about this election through our polling. first today's trivia question. who was the last democrat to win more than 400 electoral votes. if you have an election related
if there's one thing the markets don't like, it is uncertainty. one piece of business and uncertainty ends with tomorrow's election. how is wall street reacting on this pre-election day? becky quick is here for the market rundown. >> reporter: chuck, you hit the nail on the head. wall street hates uncertainty and tomorrow we will go into the polls to it try to decide at least one part of that uncertainty. the wa "the wall street journal" has it laid out today. the end of the election is a win for the markets no matter who wins and that's the good news. that uncertainty will be wiped off the table. the problem is market watchers say you are very quickly going
to be replacing that with what happens to the fiscal cliff, that will come up quickly on the back end of it. everyone is trying to handicap what happens with this election. we've been watching the polls, taking a look at what people are saying around the country and watching indicators. wall street has its own indicator and it goes like this. the dow's direction between labor day and election day has predicted the correct winner in 25 of the last 28 elections. it goes all the way back to 19000. now you may wonder where is the dow since labor day? at this point the dow on labor day closed at 13,091. on friday the market closed at 13,093. so this is sitting on a razor's edge like every other poll we've been watching in this case. so it all comes down to where the market direction is today. right now the dow is down by about 25 points. we'll see how it closes at the end of the day. "the daily rundown" will be back in 30 seconds.
a razor tight race, an incumbent on the rocks, a challenger who hasn't quite made the final sale. today a deep dive into our final national poll before the election. and if it looks a little familiar that's because we have seen this movie before maybe. and what may be good news for the president is that his numbers look almost identical to george w. bush's in the final days of the 2004 race. look at this. 4 48%. but let me go further direction of the country, our final poll in 2004, 41%. our final poll in 2012, 42%.
let me show you another one. the president's job approval, look at this. 49%/49%. and finally one more about the challenger's images. for mitt romney, 45%/44%. for john kerry 45%, 44%. i won't bring up the whole massachusetts aspects. bush went on to win that race thanks to a razor thin victory in ohio. so let's dig deeper inside the numbers. we all know it comes down to turnout. tomorrow it will come down to turnout but it's more complicated. the single most important question will be what is the racial composition of the electorate? and then, of course, the second question we'll be looking at to answer as the returns come in, how do the undecideds break. pollster fred yang and republican pollster bill mcintur. i will start with the undecideds and with you, fred, and i know
peter hart, our pollster on this, broke down these up for grab voters and how all of a sudden they look a little more pro-obama than they do pro-romney from october. up for grab voters now the job approval rating of the president 48% to 41%. the feelings to the president 46% to 29% positive to negative. but look at this. mitt romney's feeling thermometer was 22%/49%. this is about 10% of the electora electorate, people undecided or only lean obama or lean romney. you look at those numbers and it tells you what, fred? >> i look at those numbers and it's going to be a very close election. every pundit, pollster, analyst has said that. and i think with these undecided voters, up for grab voters in a close election like this and like 2004, last-minute momentum helps. the president's leadership, hurricane sandy helped a lot, and i think these numbers with
the up for grab voters show that as we head into tomorrow the president has a little bit of wind at his back. >> well, but it also depends what is the make yum much of the electorate? a tremendous presentation for us yesterday about this very issue. white voters versus nonwhite voters. the basic numbers from our poll. among white voters mitt romney gets 57%. president obama 38%. that's about five points below where he was in 2008. among nonwhite voters president obama at 74%. mitt romney at 19%. but, bill, what you did, and i'm going to throw this herevery
the miami area. i think of the electorate becomes a little less nonwhite. florida looks much better for president obama. and if president obama wins florida, he basically wins the election. >> all right, bill, the reverse to you. if it is more 75%/76%, if seniors outside number young voters, the other way around in terms of percentage of the two states do you think they go suddenly from a slight lean obama to too close to call to potentially a romney nabbing it? >> it means romney could win ohio and probably would narrowly and there's a reason romney is in pennsylvania and we're seeing, by the way, recent polls in michigan and minnesota that
also shows very tight margins. why? because we have been doing for you something called password nation. there are two kinds of counties, service worker, empty nester, older, rural counties. and those folks have surged to romney. guess where they're located? io iowa, minnesota, michigan, ohio, pennsylvania, upper state new york. and that's why these states are closing and closing in terms of why we're seeing margins moving towards romney. >> very quickly, bill, fred, do either -- what are the odds of a split decision, popular vote/electoral college? bill, what do you put it at? >> a one in four chance. national votes tend to spill over to the electoral college. >> i am the same category. and, by the way, when you look at individual battleground states, you have to given the advantage to president obama. >> fred yang and bill mcinturff we need you tomorrow night. our super panel will be here next. with tempers flaring in florida and elsewhere, are we heading
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so together, we can keep moving america forward. i'm barack obama and i approve this message. president obama and governor romney are making their closing arguments in the crucial battleground states of ohio and florida and their legal teams are preparing to make arguments of their own as the fight for the white house may make a stop at the courthouse. chaotic voting lines in florida. there is a lawsuit trying to force the state to extend early voting. reamian election 0 officials go to court to defend a decision that could invalidate thousands of provisional ballots. joining me now bob herbert, distinguished senior fellow,
maggie haberman, managing editor nancy gibbs and msnbc contributor and mccain 2008 guru steve schmidt. maggie, quickly on the preparati preparations for contesting the election, they are in place and it looks -- i've had people tell me this is exactly how democrats will do it in florida. this is exactly how it could happen in ohio. how real is all this? >> it is real they are preparing. i'm not sure it will come down as close as everyone thinks it is. a lot of ugliness over the next two days. you've had for weeks both sides preparing their legal arguments for how this could go down. in florida i'm hearing people think it will be closer than, say, ohio. but we'll see. >> let me be a cynic here and this is both a question to bob and steve, and that is how much of this the more attention you give it is a way to motivate voters? >> oh, i think it's a way to motivate voters. but i think it's also real. i think that voter suppression efforts have been in place for the longest time and democrats
said we're not going to be blind side ed by it. you want to motivate the voters but they're also afraid people are going to try to hijack some of these elections. >> steve, are you fearful the republican party looks like they're the party that says, no, we want stricter rules on voting? that you're not for more possibilities to find ways to vote? >> i think that one of the things you always want to be for whether you're a democrat or republ republican, you want everyone who is eligible to vote to vote. that's how you want to win elections. i think that all of this stuff that has transpired over the last two years is in search of a solution to a problem, voting fraud, that doesn't really exist when you look deeply at the question. >> have you ever felt like you lost an election on voter sflaud. >> it's part of the mythology now in the republican party that there's widespread voter fraud across the country n. fact, there's not. both sides are lawyered up to the enth degree and they'll all posture back and forth on it but it probably won't come down to
lawyers. >> nancy, one of my concerns about this election the losing side will not feel as if they lost fair and square, that they'll feel as the election were taken from them in some form or another, whether had it's on ballot day or in some larger context. >> i worry about that, too, especially if we have what you have been previewing for weeks, either an electoral college tie or a popular vote split. your cynical argument, i'm looking at these lines of the number of people who voted early and the eagerness people are showing to vote this time, this has not been the most uplifting election and yet if it ends up with really high, to put it mildly, really high turnout, i do think it speaks to people's beliefs that this matters and they have a role to play that is very heartening in the midst of a campaign that has been disorganized. >> give me one and i have my slider map. i'll just play vanna white here. maggie haberman, your expected
paths. how do you think the night will wear on, starting at 7:00 when virginia polls close. >> i don't think we call it quickly. i think it's going to go for president obama. >> and if that does, that's not quite checkmate but it's close. >> it's pretty close. >> anybody else agree or disagree? >> i think he could lose virginia. i think the election will be a nailbiter for obama. >> romney will win virginia. >> and where is your head on virginia? >> i don't do predictions 18 hours out because, boy, because your map is still moving around a lot. >> it is. let me ask you this. do any of you think he loses -- that president obama loses wisconsin? steve? >> no. >> you don't see that scenario. anybody else? >> it hasn't happened since '84. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if
we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i changed my opinion on that. i thought he was going to lose iowa. >> you believe iowa. where do you fall? >> the president. >> look what this does here. this puts -- we put it up to 259 so th so then he's is 11 away. anybody thinks he's going to win florida? so you give romney this, florida. colorado, i think it will be the closest state in the country. >> i agree. >> where does it go? >> romney. >> romney wins. >> really close but romney. >> it might all come down to ohio. >> it may. and virginia we have sitting he here.
so this could mean to me as a realistic scenario and i won't make you force these, hiohio, virginia and new hampshire sitting out here. does anybody think ohio is a true tossup? >> i do. >> you do? >> i do. >> i don't 0. i think obama will win. >> i think obama will win it but it's close. >> that's the question. there are democrats who believe it's just not a tossup anymore. >> buttoss-up anymore. >> it's now about, does one of them have some secret in their ground game that we don't know about. >> romney has not been ahead in any of the polls. >> that's why it's a secret. >> stick around. i want to talk about the post election era. who was the last democrat to win more than 400 electoral votes? lbj in '64. 486 electoral votes in that same time span. three republicans, nixon, bush sr. and reagan twice. if you have a trivia question that should be on the show, e-mail us. one of my personal songs that i
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two predictors played out over the weekend. the redskins lost their home game and that bodes well for mitt romney, but alabama beat lsu and that could bode well for president obama. let's bring back our panel. by the way, the whole redskins rule, if romney wins the popular vote, the rule is 19 for 19 even if he loses the presidency. there is no jets. the jets lose there -- did they lose their bye week? okay, the recrimination.
losing. what will be, does anybody think democratic recriminations will be add bitter as the fighting on the side of the republican party? >> will there be any, what will be the -- i think there will be fewer within the democratic party than if romney loses. >> what would be the -- >> democrats are almost going to be happy to re-group. obviously, they want obama to win, but the democrats republican trying to re-group -- >> a loss of white worki ing class. there will be a lot of recriminations about how people behaved after denver. >> obviously, the republicans lose, it will be this fight, is it going to be demographics or ideology. >> there's going to be civil war in the republican party.
>> election night is the republicans are about to give up their fourth and fifth senate seat to the whackadoodle caucus. of course, also latino vote. >> nancy? >> i would have said it would be ideology except the fact it has been so tight. i think the math. >> shameless plugs. >> i'm going to give a shameless plug to my town. new york's gone through hell through the past week, but everybody's been pulling together and stuff, so a tip of the hat to my fellow new yorkers. >> maggie. >> i'd like to steal part of that and alex barnes and i have two pieces that address what you just talked about. >> you guys already looking ahead. >> full election coverage and a special double issue out on friday. >> mark kirk, senator from illinois, recovering from a stroke. climbed 37 flights of stairs yesterday in chicago and that's
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